In the first quarter of 2023, the price of Acetone first fell and then rose. On March 28, the average price in the first quarter was 5,459 yuan/ton, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.98%, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.03%. The price changes in the first quarter were mainly due to the mismatch between supply and demand, the reduced and delayed imported cargoes, and the low port inventory.
In the second quarter of 2023, China's phenolic and ketone installations will undergo intensive maintenance. In the second quarter, there are 5 companies undergoing routine maintenance. The maintenance involves a production capacity of 640,000 tons, and the maintenance loss is expected to be 88,500 tons. This will lead to a tightening of domestic acetone supply in the second quarter.
It is estimated that the output of the domestic acetone industry in the second quarter will be 701,000 tons, a slight increase of 1.34% from the first quarter and a year-on-year increase of 25.22% over the same period in 2022. In the second quarter, the maintenance of domestic phenol and ketone equipment was relatively concentrated, involving the maintenance of 4 sets of equipment. It is expected that the industry's average capacity utilization rate will drop to 76.55% in the second quarter, a decrease of 8 percentage points from the previous quarter.
The net import volume of China's acetone industry is expected to decrease in the second quarter, mainly due to the increase in the domestic supply of acetone and the increase in the self-sufficiency rate of household products, which will squeeze the import volume. Strong foreign prices have attracted many operators to speed up export operations. It is estimated that the net export volume in the second quarter of 2023 will be around 98,000 tons.